ATLAS
AI Stack/Semiconductor manufacturing equipment

Semiconductor manufacturing equipment

Severe bottleneck

Lithography, deposition, etch, ion implantation, inspection, metrology, and test equipment used inside fabs.

EUV lithography is a monopoly; deposition, etch, and metrology are oligopolies. The slope of AI compute supply is set in these companies' factories years before any chip ships.

Companies
8
8 pub · 0 priv
Public mcap
$1.93T
Public revenue
$133.44B
Wtd YoY
18%
Wtd GM
52%
Wtd OM
35%
Avg fund
71
Avg tech
82

Market structure

Current TAM
$115.00B
5y TAM
$180.00B
5y CAGR
9.0%
Companies
8
Margin structure
Cyclical
Concentration
Oligopoly
Capex intensity
High
Commoditization
Low

Drivers

What grows the pie

  • EUV ramp
  • Advanced packaging tools
  • China indigenization spend

Constraints

What can break the thesis

  • Export controls
  • Multi-year tool lead times
  • Cyclical end demand

Upstream dependencies

Downstream consumers

Companies in Equipment

Ranked by composite score
CompanyMkt CapGrowthFCF%Val1YTechFundAIScoreView
ATEYYAdvantest$124.16B41.2%21.3%113x78828075High-growth Infrastructure Bet
KLACKLA Corp$238.98B11.5%22.1%37x85717870Strategic Compounder
ASMLASML$597.45B13.2%24.5%33x82768867Critical Bottleneck
LRCXLam Research$365.28B23.8%20.1%37x84747865Cyclical AI Beneficiary
AMATApplied Materials$338.75B11.4%10.9%26x84668264Cyclical AI Beneficiary
TERTeradyne$53.90B87.0%7.9%36x80736563Cyclical AI Beneficiary
TOELYTokyo Electron$142.67B8.6%9.4%38x83637862Cyclical AI Beneficiary
COHRCoherent$70.14B20.5%-3.0%44x82597860High-growth Infrastructure Bet