AI Stack/Foundation models

Foundation models

Moderate

Frontier labs and challengers building LLMs, multimodal, reasoning, and agentic systems.

Capability defines what the rest of the stack can charge for. But monetization, margin durability, and the long-run number of viable frontier labs are all live questions.

Public revenue

$1.91T

Wtd YoY

20%

Wtd GM

62%

Wtd OM

33%

Avg fund

Avg tech

Market structure

Current TAM

$25.00B

5y TAM

$200.00B

5y CAGR

50.0%

Companies

Margin structure

Mixed

Concentration

Concentrated

Capex intensity

Extreme

Commoditization

High

Drivers

What grows the pie

↑Token volume
↑Reasoning model adoption
↑Agent workloads

Constraints

What can break the thesis

↓Capex per training run
↓Model commoditization
↓Open-weights pressure

Upstream dependencies

Cloud Accelerators

Downstream consumers

Enterprise AI Consumer AI AI infra SW

Companies in Models

Ranked by composite score

Company	Mkt Cap	Growth	FCF%	Val	1Y	Tech	Fund	AI	Score	View
GOOGLAlphabet	$4.71T	21.8%	6.6%	27x		87	67	94	73	Strategic Compounder
MSFTMicrosoft	$3.13T	18.3%	11.6%	22x		38	68	96	69	Strategic Compounder
METAMeta Platforms	$1.54T	33.1%	11.9%	17x		29	72	88	68	Strategic Compounder
PRIV-DBRXDatabricksPrivate	$62.00B	55.0%	5.0%	—	—	—	62	80	65	Watchlist Only
PRIV-OPENAIOpenAIPrivate	$500.00B	250.0%	-350.0%	—	—	—	54	99	60	Watchlist Only
AMZNAmazon	$2.85T	16.6%	1.3%	27x		75	57	92	60	Strategic Compounder
PRIV-ANTHAnthropicPrivate	$180.00B	350.0%	-250.0%	—	—	—	54	97	60	Watchlist Only
PRIV-DEEPDeepSeekPrivate	$10.00B	1000.0%	-200.0%	—	—	—	54	88	58	Watchlist Only
IBMIBM	$211.47B	9.5%	19.0%	17x		27	59	55	57	Strategic Compounder
PRIV-XAIxAIPrivate	$50.00B	500.0%	-300.0%	—	—	—	52	75	55	Watchlist Only
PRIV-HFHugging FacePrivate	$4.50B	150.0%	-40.0%	—	—	—	54	65	54	Watchlist Only
PRIV-MISTMistral AIPrivate	$6.00B	200.0%	-150.0%	—	—	—	52	65	54	Watchlist Only
BABAAlibaba	$322.61B	2.9%	-4.5%	15x		40	48	65	52	Watchlist Only
PRIV-COHCoherePrivate	$5.50B	150.0%	-80.0%	—	—	—	51	55	51	Watchlist Only
PRIV-PPLXPerplexityPrivate	$12.00B	500.0%	-200.0%	—	—	—	51	60	51	Watchlist Only
PRIV-MOONMoonshot AIPrivate	$3.50B	400.0%	-150.0%	—	—	—	51	55	49	Watchlist Only